Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The opinions in this blog are my own and do not reflect the opinions of the US State Department, American Councils for International Education or their affiliates.

Monday, August 29, 2011

There goes the neighborhood...

Tons of news on the Turkish international relations and diplomatic front in the past few weeks.

Turkey and Israel have been in talks all summer to try to heal the breach caused by the Israeli raid on the Mavi Marmara last year, which resulted in the deaths of 9 Turkish activists.  The Mavi Marmara was supposed to join another run on the Gaza blockade this summer, but technical problems with the ship prevented its sailing.  Turkey has continued to ask for an apology and compensation for the families of those killed, and Israel has continued to refuse.

The continued boycott the Turkish parliament by the member of the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy party has not made much progress since the election in July.  The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has accused the Peace and Democracy party of being a wing of the Kurdish separatist movement, the P.K.K.  The members of parliament elected from the Peace and Democracy party, some of them jailed because of their alleged P.K.K. ties, have continuously denied involvement with the P.K.K.'s violent campaign for an independent Kurdistan.  The P.K.K. is only made the situation worse for the Peace and Democracy party.  In retaliation for the AKP's continued refusal to meet the demands of the boycotting Peace and Democracy politicians, the P.K.K. has stepped up its terrorist activity and has bombed both civilian and military targets.  In retaliation, Turkey, in partnership with Iran, has bombed suspected insurgent positions inside Iraqi Kurdistan.  The Turkish government says the strikes will continue for the immediate future.  As with any operation of this kind, there have been reports of civilian casualties.  The P.K.K.'s latest round of attacks are not only counter-productive but also possibly lethal to the reputations of the politicians associated with the Peace and Democracy Party.  Their efforts up till now may have seemed to be ineffectual against the powerful AKP, but their peaceful protest gave them the moral upper hand.  Now, no matter how innocent the Peace and Democracy Party and its members are of involvement with the Kurdish separatist movement, they will most likely will never be able to live down the violent "support" the P.K.K. is supplying.

For the last few years, Turkey has been pursuing a policy of "zero problems toward neighbors". It was an attempt to not only have good relations with the diverse range of countries in Southern Europe, the Caucuses and the Middle East, but to take advantage of its unique geography and history to become a leader and role model for this long troubled region.  Last year, the Mavi Marmar incident dealt a serious blow to the long-term sustainability of this policy.  This year, revolutionary movements of the Arab Spring have made "zero problems" completely untenable.  In the last six months, Turkey has been scrambling to revise and in some cases completely reverse its diplomatic position in light of recent developments.  No where has this been as evident as in Syria, with whose government Turkey until recently enjoyed friendly relations.  Turkey is now leading the international condemnation of President Assad's attacks against his own people, but stopping just short of demanding he step down.  The change in foreign policy was outlined by President Erdogan in his post-election victory speech.  Turkey still sees itself as a regional leader, but a leader of the peoples, not just the governments that rule them.  Erdogan puts Turkey forward as an example of open and democratic government for the Arab countries in political transition to look up to.  I just hope that Erdogan remains as committed to cultivating democracy in his own country as he seems to be about cultivating it in the Arab world.  Turkey may look like a bastion of freedom in the chaotic and ruthless world of Middle East politics, but as we have seen it has plenty of room for improvement.

Monday, August 1, 2011

The End of an Era?

Huge news on the political front in Turkey.  In what has been described by many analysts as a last-ditch effort to assert power over the government, the top leaders of the Turkish military simultaneously resigned Friday.  The Turkish military, particularly its leadership, have historically been considered the guardians of the country's democratic institutions and secular nature.  They have used their unofficial but very real status to depose Turkey's democratically elected governments four times since 1950.  However, military rule in each of these cases was only temporary.  In what are truly exceptional incidences in the history of modern military coups, the military government has always voluntarily stepped down after calling for new elections. 

However, since Prime Minister Erdogan's party, the AKP, was elected in 2002, Mr. Erdogan has made it a priority to curb the power of the military over Turkish politics.  One of his greatest triumphs came in 2004 when a Constitutional amendment gave real power for the first time to the civilian members of the Turkish National Security Council.  The National Security Council was a body created by members of the military government after the 1980 coup to ensure it had a permanent place in the government after it reverted to civilian hands.  The  Council for many years played the role of an oversight committee for any reforms made by Grand National Assembly.  The few civilian members of the Council were there as simple "yes" men until 2004.

The most recent and probably the most damaging challenge to the military's power has come through the investigation of the alleged coup plot, discovered in 2008 and continuing through the present.  As a direct result, at least 10% of the military's top brass has been arrested this year alone.  The imprisonment of so much of its leadership has effectively prevented the military from wielding the influence it once had.  Though I don't doubt that there was a coup plot in the works against the AKP government, I believe the government has used it as a serendipitous excuse to swiftly and effectively silence the military.

The simultaneous resignation of all of the country's top military officers has been explained as protest against the coup plot related arrests in particular and their loss of power more generally.  Unfortunately for them, what was meant to be an exhibit power has in reality been the coup-de-gras for the era of military intervention in Turkish politics.  Without the staunchly secular military checking the power of the Islamist-leaning civilian government, many are afraid of what the future could hold for Turkey.  Mr. Erdogan has been accused of harboring authoritarian tendencies and the desire to impose Shariah-inspired reforms on the Turkish public.  However, since coming to power almost 10 years ago, the AKP has done little to impose Islamic values upon secular or non-Muslim Turks.  If Turkey continues to function as the vibrant democracy it has shown itself to be, then the removal of military influence in the government can only be a positive in the long run.  However, the continued incarceration of elected officials and journalists with opinions unpopular with the ruling party does give cause for worry.  The removal of the military from the sphere of politics gives me great hope for the continued liberalization and democratization of Turkish society but the Turks must remain vigilant and not become complacent about the on going violations of freedom of speech and due process.